Thoroughbred Racing – The Turf Speculator

Thoroughbred Handicapping From The Bettors Perspective.

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2012 Breeders Cup, Day 2 Selections

November 3rd, 2012 · Comments Off

After an overall poor showing if selections that won, I still think I had some live runners look back on the day. Let’s see if we can do better today. I am going to split the races up so you know which races I am actually interested in and which ones I am not. Between my two systems, there are 4 races on the Breeders Cup card today that I am looking at.The ones I AM interested in will have “(system)” in front of the race and the ones I am not interested in will have “(NewPace)” instead.

Here we go:

Race 1 (NewPace): 1-4-2-3

Race 2 (NewPace): 10-1-11-8

Race 3 (System): 4-3-1-7

Race 4 (NewPace): 10-13-8-4

Race 5 (System): 9-3-8-6

Race 6 (System): 6-3-7-1

Race 7 (NewPace): 9-13-2-1

Race 8 (NewPace): 4-8-9-2

Race 9 (NewPace): 3-1-9-12

Race 10 (System): 3-1-9-12

Race 11 (NewPace): 2-3-1-5

Race 12 (NewPace): 5-2-11-10

As you can see, races 3, 5, 6, and 10 are my system selections and NewPace (out of the box) selections for the rest.

Good Luck!

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Breeders Cup, Day 1 in the books…

November 2nd, 2012 · Comments Off

I mentioned in the previous post that I’ve switched handicapping software. This happened about 3-4 months ago. I went from Using Michael Pizzolla’s Black Magic to Dave Schwartz’s Horse Street Handicapper (HSH for short). Dave has been updating HSH quite a bit lately and has come out with some other awesome products to compliment his software. The renegade Handicapper as one of them, definitely worth a look.

Back in August I had the opportunity to attend his “Secret Seminar” over the course of a weekend. Dave did not disappoint. He walked us through building out own handicapping systems using HSH and how to handicap with those systems.

He has created a product called NewPace, which subsequently interfaces with HSH like a dream. Now NewPace out of the box is a nice contender selection tool. You saw some of the picks it came up with for day 1 of the Breeders Cup. But, NewPace can be improved, and races 2 and 9 are a testament to the new systems. Those selections came from my own built system based on NewPace. I know what you’re thinking, a $3.80 winner and a $5.40 winner. Big deal!

Actually it IS a big deal. As of right now the only systems I have built are Non-Maiden Dirt Sprints and Non-Maiden Dirt Routes and those two races fit those profiles. In essence, I would have been 2 for 2 today using my own systems. Indeed, two races is a small sample size however, the results I am seeing using my custom built systems is amazing.

Picture this:

  • Your top four contenders are winning at 82-83%
  • Your top two contenders are winning at 66-67%
  • Your top horse is winning at a 40% clip

Couple a strong contender selection process with a smart money management system and you become a very, very tough player to beat and you may even show a profit!

Dave’s software has taught me to think differently about racing and how to tilt the odds in my favor.

As far as tomorrow, I’ll try to do a more extensive pre-race analysis and let you know which system(s) I am using to handicap each race.

I hope you all did really well today and I will see you tomorrow!

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2012 Breeders Cup – Friday Picks

November 2nd, 2012 · Comments Off

Short and sweet…

Here are my selections for Breeders Cup (with scratches), Friday November 2nd:

Race 1: 11-4-3-10

Race 2: 7-3-10-1

Race 3: 1-6-12-3

Race 4: 3-7-4-6

Race 5: 7-10-11-5

Race 6: 13-8-5-6

Race 7: 2-8-5-3

Race 8: 9-8-12-11

Race 9: 6-5-4-8

Race 10: 8-6-3-9

A lot has happened since I last posted. I’ve switched software and created my own handicapping systems. Those selections above are a product of some of the systems I’ve built. I’ll do another post about that later. Let’s dig in to the first day of Breeders Cup. Good luck to all!

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I’ll Have Another Update

June 8th, 2012 · Comments Off

ELMONT, N.Y. – I’ll Have Another will scratch from the Belmont Stakes due to developing tendonitis in his left foreleg, trainer Doug O’Neill said Friday.

Read the rest of the albeit short article from the Daily Racing Form here.

O’Neill & owner Paul Reddam scheduled a news conference at Belmont Racetrack for 1 p.m.

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BREAKING NEWS: I’ll Have Another Scratches from Belmont!

June 8th, 2012 · Comments Off

I just saw breaking news from the NY Times. I’ll Have Another scratches from the Belmont! More news to come as it’s being released!

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